Short answer: not yet, at least not a binding global one. People forced from their homes by floods, droughts or rising seas are not automatically covered by refugee law. In most places, their protection depends on a patchwork of national rules, regional agreements and non-binding commitments.
But the legal picture is changing. New treaties are being negotiated, regional deals are setting precedents, and non-binding "soft law" is shaping what governments do. This guide explains where protection stands, and what young people want COP31 to push forward.
Why refugee law doesn't cover most climate displacement
The 1951 Refugee Convention protects people fleeing persecution on specific grounds. Climate change is not one of them. So the popular term "climate refugee" has no formal legal status.
Two points matter:
Most climate displacement happens within countries. People displaced inside their own country are covered by the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, and in Africa by the Kampala Convention, not by refugee law.
Some people displaced across borders may still qualify for protection in specific situations, for example where climate impacts combine with conflict or persecution, or under broader regional refugee definitions.
New to the terms? Displacement, migration, relocation and immobility, explained.
What is soft law, and why does it matter?
Soft law means agreements, principles, guidelines and standards that are not legally binding but still shape what states do.
Why it exists: in a diverse world it is hard to get every country to agree to new binding rules, especially when those rules could affect economic policy. Soft law lets states agree on direction first.
How it works: governments that don't follow soft law don't face legal penalties. They do face reputational costs for failing to live up to commitments they made publicly.
How it shapes climate mobility: soft law can become the basis for binding rules over time, once states accept it as a norm and apply it consistently. Climate mobility already appears in several soft-law frameworks:
the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM)
the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR)
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
the Nansen Initiative Protection Agenda
From soft law to binding agreements: what's emerging
Soft law
GCM, Global Compact on Refugees, 2030 Agenda, Sendai Framework, Nansen Protection Agenda.
Non-bindingIn placeRegional frameworks
Cartagena Declaration (Latin America), Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility.
RegionalIn placeBilateral treaty
Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union: up to 280 places a year to live, study and work in Australia.
BindingIn force 2024Global treaty
Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters (PPED). Diplomatic conference in Manila, Jan–Feb 2027.
BindingNegotiating · 2027The Falepili Union: a first bilateral climate mobility treaty
The Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty was signed in November 2023 and entered into force in August 2024. It creates a special human mobility pathway that lets citizens of Tuvalu live, study and work in Australia, with up to 280 places a year. It also recognises Tuvalu's continuing statehood despite sea-level rise.
It isn't a global solution, but it shows that when two states work together, climate mobility can be written into a binding treaty with mechanisms that protect people's rights.
A treaty on protection in disasters
In December 2024, the UN General Assembly decided to negotiate a legally binding instrument on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters (PPED), based on the International Law Commission's 2016 draft articles, with a view to concluding it by the end of 2027. A December 2025 resolution set the roadmap: a UN diplomatic conference will meet in Manila from 25 January to 12 February 2027.
MYCP is calling for this treaty to be adopted quickly, and to recognise climate- and environment-related human mobility.
Regional frameworks
Latin America: the Cartagena Declaration uses a broader refugee definition. Progressive interpretations could strengthen protection for people displaced by climate impacts in some situations.
Pacific: the Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility sets out principles for rights-based mobility and planned relocation that respects land and culture.
International courts
The International Court of Justice's 2025 Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change is now part of the conversation. Advocates point to its discussion of non-refoulement (the principle of not returning people to serious harm) in relation to climate impacts.
What MYCP wants COP31 to do
Building on the COP31 key messages of the Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility, MYCP calls on Parties to:
Promote regional and international protection pathways for people displaced by climate impacts, such as humanitarian visas, temporary protection, complementary protection, labour mobility schemes and other regular migration routes.
Encourage progressive interpretations of the Cartagena Declaration in Latin America, to protect people displaced by climate change under the broader refugee definition where appropriate.
Support regional agreements for safe, planned relocation that uphold land and cultural rights.
Speed up the adoption of the PPED treaty as a key instrument for recognising climate- and environment-related human mobility.
Include children and young people in designing these protections, because they will live with the outcome the longest.
Young people will live with these protections the longest. They should help design them.
FAQ
Are climate refugees protected under international law?
Not as a category. The 1951 Refugee Convention doesn't cover climate change as such. Some people displaced by climate impacts may still qualify for protection in specific circumstances, and regional frameworks may offer broader protection.
What is the Falepili Union?
A treaty between Australia and Tuvalu, in force since August 2024. It includes a special mobility pathway that lets Tuvaluans live, study and work in Australia, with up to 280 places a year.
What is the PPED treaty?
A legally binding instrument on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters, now being negotiated at the UN based on the International Law Commission's 2016 draft articles. A diplomatic conference meets in Manila in early 2027, and the General Assembly aims to conclude the treaty by the end of 2027.
What is soft law?
Non-binding agreements, principles and guidelines, such as the Global Compact for Migration, that shape state behaviour and can later inform binding law.
Protection is moving, slowly
There is no single law that protects everyone displaced by climate change. But soft law is turning into practice, regional deals are setting precedents, and a global treaty on disasters is under negotiation.
COP31, in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026, is a chance to push these protections forward, and to make sure young people on the move help shape them. Join the MYCP network →
